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All bulls want for Christmas this holiday season is to push Bitcoin price higher and prevent a further downtrend back into a full-blown bear market.

But unless Bitcoin price can reclaim key support at $7,400, bullish crypto investors are going to have a bad Christmas, according to one crypto analyst.

Bitcoin Price Must Reclaim $7,400 Support Or Risk The Naughty List

At the close of October, Bitcoin price was trading above well above $9,000 following a news-driven short-squeeze that caused the first-ever cryptocurrency to set its third-largest single-day gain in its history, pushing the price of the asset from support at $7,400 to as high as $10,500.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Attempts to Reclaim ‘Mega Bull Run’ Moving Average 

But before November could close, the leading crypto asset by market cap had fallen nearly a third in price, to $6,500 at its recent local low. Now, with December in full swing and the holidays around the corner, bulls are left wondering if they’ll get the thing they’ve wished most for this year: bullish Bitcoin.

According to one crypto analyst, $7,400 – the level that triggered the massive impulse rally – represents a key support level, now acting as resistance, that must be reclaimed by bulls for a chance to get their Christmas wish.

The Ghost of Crypto Christmas: Past, Present, and Future

Markets are cyclical, and according to legendary trader William Delbert Gann, tops and bottoms typically occur around the months of November, December, January, February, April and July.

Bitcoin price topped out in December 2017, later forming a V-shaped bottom in February 2018. In November 2018, Bitcoin broke down below $6,000, eventually bottoming in December 2018 at $3,100.

In 2019, Bitcoin broke out in April to later top out in July. The crypto asset experienced another massive drop in November of this year, and could once again be looking to find a bottom this current month of December.

Last year, Bitcoin price bottomed out by December 15, and rallied nearly 20% by Christmas from the low it set, giving bulls a bit of relief on Christmas Day.

This year, Bitcoin is heading into the holidays once again falling, teetering on the edge of support at $7,400. And until bulls reclaim this level, Bitcoin could be stuck in a continued downtrend for the foreseeable future, and head into 2020 and the upcoming halving a lot more bearish than anyone would have expected.

Related Reading | Accurate Trader Calls For $1K Bitcoin and Destruction of Crypto Industry

According to the crypto asset’s stock-to-flow model alone, Bitcoin should be trading upwards near $55,000 per BTC come May 2020 when the asset reaches its pre-coded halving, where miners see the block reward cut in half. Each halving is typically considered a massively bullish event, due to miners selling less and less Bitcoin into the market.

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Tony Spilotro , 2019-12-03 19:00:20

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.


While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

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Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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