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Bitcoin declined below the 200 MA on the 4H time frame and it has finally closed twice consecutively below it. This would normally be a very bearish development leading to significant further downside but as we can see in this case, BTC/USD remains within a falling wedge as well as above the 61.8% fib extension level. Now that the price has tested this level again and held it, it is reasonable to assume that Bitcoin might rally from here until and unless we see a close below the 61.8% fib extension level or a daily close below the 200 Day EMA. It is also important to note that BTC/USD has yet to retest the 200 Day MA which could happen very quickly if the price breaks out of the falling wedge. 

All things considered, this does not seem to be a good spot to be bearish on Bitcoin (BTC). As before, I remain neutral on BTC/USD near term waiting for either bullish or bearish confirmation. So far, we do not have a bearish confirmation and if the price ends up breaking out of the falling wedge, we will have a bullish confirmation and the bears might soon lose control. When that happens, many retail bears would have already been trapped in anticipating a decline to the bottom of the descending channel. This would give the market makers and whales another opportunity to shake them out. Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of weakness short term but cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) are still reluctant to lose ground and for good reason.

If we look at the non-logarithmic ETH/USD chart, we can see that it has long been testing the 61.8% fib retracement level. If it succeeds in breaking out, we would have a bullish frenzy at hand with a series of short squeezes above $200. This should be a strong deterrent for anyone trying to short the market right now. Cryptocurrencies remain in a downtrend and long term we will see a decline but short term the bears need to be very cautious. There is not much reason to be bullish either at this point until we have confirmation of a breakout. The EUR/USD forex pair and Gold (XAU/USD) could once again be the leading indicators to dictate the direction of Bitcoin (BTC). Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) keeps on declining but we are not close to a breakout in Bitcoin dominance which means an October 25 styled pump can be expected. As for altcoins, if we see Altcoin Dominance (Others.D) rally past the 200 Day MA, we might have an altcoin rally around the corner. 

Jefe Caan , 2019-11-14 16:30:00 ,

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.


While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

Featured Image from Shutterstock


Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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