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Bitcoin (BTC) has undone its move that it made on the weekend and the price is back where it was. We called this move in our Sunday’s analysis as the most probable scenario and it has now played out successfully. The question now is, “where is Bitcoin going next from here?” So far, the price is holding strongly above the $7,243 support. However, it remains vulnerable as it could decline within the falling wedge soon as this support is breached and the price starts moving down. As long as the price remains above this support, the bulls do not have much to fear and a move to the upside could be expected. If BTC/USD rallies higher from here, we would expect a retest of the 200 moving average which would potentially push the price past $8,000.

The EUR/USD forex pair has had a strong impact on the price of Bitcoin (BTC) which is why it is important to take it into consideration. The near term outlook of the pair remains bullish as it has just formed a double top but considering that it is trading within a descending triangle, we could see a move down at some point. In any case, Bitcoin bulls do not have much to worry about as long as EUR/USD stays above the 61.8% fib extension level. If it breaks above the 38.2%, that would be an even more bullish development and BTC/USD could certainly push past $8,000 in the case. Ethereum (ETH) shares a similar outlook and we can see that the manner in which it has revisited the 38.2% fib extension level at $147.45 is quite similar to how ETH/USD retested the 38.2% after it had rallied off the temporary bottom following the previous crash.

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) continues to show signs of weakness. This goes in favor of the market as it means altcoins could rally near term against Bitcoin (BTC). This would be in line with our near term expectations for the market. Some cryptocurrencies like VeChain (VET) have already started rallying these past few days. Considering that the Fear and Greed Index is already flashing a “fear” signal, this might be a good time to consider being long near term. However, it is important to realize that there isn’t much room for further upside. Any bullishness from here on out is not likely to last more than a month’s time. This temporary bullishness should therefore not be confused with a trend reversal as the market is far from beginning a new bullish cycle just yet.

Jefe Caan , 2019-12-02 18:30:00 ,

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.

While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

Featured Image from Shutterstock

Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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