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Whether or not Bitcoin will soar after next year’s halving is drawing mixed opinions. However, one Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analyst is confident that the prices of the world’s most valuable coin will soar to over $141,000 a pop if deductions are made based on historical price action. In a widely shared video posted on YouTube, the analyst is confident that BTC’s price is yet to be priced in and that there is more room for gains.

Bitcoin is a Logarithmic Asset

Bitcoin is considered as a logarithmic asset. That means, unlike most assets, its prices do experience sharp busts and towards the tail end, prices tend to taper, plateauing.

Analysts are confident that despite the clear exponential growth of BTC prices at certain points in time, logarithmic tools are suitable for predicting the asset. By basing their findings on price charts that act as maps, there is context since past action can be sufficient in laying out the framework for future pricing.

Also, the capital market, though appearing trendless with haphazard price movements, carry gems, telling the analyst the story so far.

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Dominance of Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) price is synonymous with price volatility. From 50% price spikes or dumps, a review of the last 24 months gives a clearer picture. While there has been no major improvement of the network’s source code following the rejection of SegWit 2X, the coin is the most valuable in the space, and a base in most cryptocurrency exchange.

Hoovering at $8,600, BTC is under pressure, posting losses against the USD and the resurgent ETH in the last week. However, BTC is still dominant in the trading circles, commandeering a market share of 65.6 percent from over 18.048 million coins in circulation.

Given its mega market cap and liquidity, analysts are always pulling their hair, scratching and factoring in all metrics as they try to predict BTC’s prices in the next quarter or year. Considering its weight in the crypto trading space, their attempts are important and anchored on Bitcoin’s rate of adoption. Given its speculative nature, predicting prices based on the rate of adoption is easier, a main component of the logarithmic chart. Therefore, based on that, it would be easier for analysts to project the trajectory of the coin.

Logarithmic Price Prediction Based on Adoption Levels

In an analysis by Willy Woo, a Bitcoin Analysts who bases his price predictions on on-chain metrics, the logarithmic chart maps out speculation and adoption:

“In this case, BTC is not your typical stock price. It’s a speculative traders game riding on top of an adoption curve. The speculative game is complex, but rates of adoptions are more predictable. In my opinion, the chart runs on this thesis, mapping the deviation of between two.”

Where Bitcoin prices will tread at in the next year is not known. Predictions vary. John McAfee is bold and has predicted BTC to hit $1 million in 2020. Similarly, Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Advisors, following the Chinese Premier announcement and endorsement of Blockchain, declared that the risk-off period is over and BTC could tread higher by the end of the year.

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Bitcoin [BTC] Will Soar to $141,000 After Halving, Logarithmic Regression Analysis Projects

Article Name

Bitcoin [BTC] Will Soar to $141,000 After Halving, Logarithmic Regression Analysis Projects

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Whether or not Bitcoin will soar after next year’s halving is drawing mixed opinions. However, one Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analyst is confident that the prices of the world’s most valuable coin will soar to over $141,000 a pop if deductions are made based on historical price action.

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Dalmas Ngetich

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CoinGape

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Coingape is committed to following the highest standards of journalism, and therefore, it abides by a strict editorial policy. While CoinGape takes all the measures to ensure that the facts presented in its news articles are accurate.

Disclaimer
The views, opinions, positions or strategies expressed by the authors and those providing comments are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, positions or strategies of CoinGape. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.



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Dalmas Ngetich , 2019-11-15 10:22:23 ,

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.


While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

Featured Image from Shutterstock


Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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