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As prices slowly recover following a rough November, metrics for bitcoin and Ethereum illustrate positive industry sentiment moving forward.

These metrics include measures related to active addresses, fees, movement, mining, and more, as outlined in Coin Metrics’ State of the Network: Issue 28.

Ethereum Activity

In the past 24 hours, over 70,000 new addresses were created on the Ethereum network, with 245,000 active addresses, a sign that things are still moving forward for the second largest cryptocurrency despite the coin facing flack as of late over failed projects and disappointed investors.

Other positive metrics include over 9 million blocks mined on Ethereum and 15.6 million addresses with a greater than zero account balance.

In conjunction, Ethereum fees came back down this week, dropping 14.4% after growing by over 20% the week before. This is likely related to the record number of ERC-721 transactions made on Gods Unchained, a popular digital trading card game.

Bitcoin Rundown

After dipping to a six month low of 1.23 last week, the Bitcoin market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio started to increase again over the past week. As of Sunday, December 1, the Bitcoin MVRV was 1.32. The MVRV ratio, calculated by dividing market cap by realized cap, is useful for getting a sense of when the exchange traded price is below “fair value,” and is also useful for spotting market tops and bottoms.

In other metrics, after reaching all-time highs in May, the amount of Bitcoin that has not moved in over one year has since been declining. As of November 31, 3,174,760 Bitcoin had not been moved in at least one year; comparatively, there was 4,500,526 Bitcoin that had not been moved for at least a year on May 18, 2019. 

The following chart shows the amount of Bitcoin not moved over X years (where X ranges from one month to 5 years):

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Not Moved In Over X Years.

Although slowly declining over the year, these large proportions of Bitcoin left unmoved help illustrate a bullish market sentiment. Despite the recent drop to just below $7,000 late-November, Bitcoin is up almost 200% in the past year, moving from a value of $3,840 on December 3, 2018 to $7,320 at time of publication. 

Further Market Insights

In another good sign for the cryptocurrency industry, Decred daily active addresses are approaching new all-time highs. On November 16, Decred had 25,315 active addresses which is its highest daily total since April 23, 2016.

Zcash, on the other hand, is trending in the opposite direction with active addresses approaching all-time lows. As of December 1, Zcash had 11,218 daily active addresses, which is the lowest since October, 2016. 

With November over, Bitcoin is down 20% for the month, although slightly higher than the lows that occurred on November 25. Most other major digital assets are down a similar magnitude. Over the past week, Monero, EOS, and Cardano have staged decent recoveries although all are down for the month. 

In closing, let’s put aside the technicals and consider the perspective of Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee, who recently spoke with CNBC. When asked about the downturn in the cryptocurrency markets and if it will continue heading into 2020, Lee though he noted “bearish headwinds” said no.

He argued that the surge in the price of American equities sets the stage for risk-tolerant investors to add capital to Bitcoin and other markets that in the past may have been deemed too “risky” from a classical perspective.

Thomas Delahunty , 2019-12-03 18:42:51

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.


While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

Featured Image from Shutterstock


Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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