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The launch of a U.S.-regulated Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has long been the dream of cryptocurrency investors — they believe that such a vehicle would catalyze mass inflows, kicking off BTC’s largest bull run yet. Though, the past few years haven’t been too kind to cryptocurrency ETF hopefuls.

Just last month, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which presides over ETFs, issued a 112-page order denying an application from Bitwise, who asserted this industry is ready for an ETF. Compound’s general counsel, Jake Chervinsky, pointed out that the denial order “reads like a damning indictment of Bitcoin’s market structure.”

Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Now Consumes A Quarter Percent Of Global Electricity

Worse still, the prospect that the Bitcoin market is ready for an ETF recently got even more pushback. This time, the pushback came from a leading cryptocurrency analyst, the “permabull” Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors.

Bye-Bye ETF Dreams

Speaking at the Blockshow conference in Singapore this week, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said that the current cryptocurrency market is too small to get its own fund. He claimed that for an ETF to be approved by the SEC, the underlying Bitcoin market will need to be much bigger, at least 18 times larger than the current size. “He estimates Bitcoin needs to be around $150,000 to cope with daily demand on an ETF,” Bloomberg wrote on the matter.

This came shortly after Todd Rosenbluth, Director of Mutual & Exchange Traded Fund Research of markets research firm CFRA, argued on CNBC that a cryptocurrency ETF remains a quixotic dream:

“It’s not the wrapper, it’s not the ETF product that’s the concern, it’s the underlying asset that the SEC is worried about from a fraud standpoint. They don’t want to pull off that band aid too quickly.”

In a sense, then, the launch of a Bitcoin ETF in Lee’s eyes is much like a chicken and the egg scenario: the launch of an ETF would likely expedite a rally over $100,000, which would boost liquidity, though this market is not currently large or liquid enough for such a fund.

Related Reading: BTC Open Interest May Act as Rocket Fuel for Explosive Bull Movement

Is a $100,000 Bitcoin Possible?

This may leave you wondering — is a $100,000+ Bitcoin price even feasible?

Per previous reports from NewsBTC, $100,000 is decisively possible. PlanB’s stock-to-flow scarcity model for Bitcoin, which uses the cryptocurrency’s stock-to-flow ratio and relates it to BTC’s market capitalization, for instance, implies a six-figure price for the cryptocurrency is on the horizon.

Related Reading: Former ECB President’s Statement Shows Bitcoin Does Have Impact on the Economy

The linear regression model, which produces a 95% R2 (statistic lingo for extremely accurate), predicts that BTC’s fair value will reach somewhere between $50,000 and $100,000 after May 2020’s halving event. The idea here is that the halvings, which reduce the number of coins minted per day by 50%, will cause a negative supply shock, pushing prices higher should demand for BTC remain.

As absurd as this may sound, PlanB’s research has also found that the price of Bitcoin always trends towards the fair value indicated by the model with ample time.

It isn’t only Bitcoin’s scarcity that implies $100,000 is on the horizon. Cryptocurrency investor Anthony Pompliano told CNN over this year that he thinks that the increased liquidity and inflation risk created by central banks and the fiat system will boost BTC sky-high in the years to come.

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Nick Chong , 2019-11-16 12:00:03

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.

While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

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Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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