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If you’ve been on Crypto Twitter at all, you know of the Bitcoin “HODL” meme. For those living under a rock, here’s a quick explainer: HODL, a misspelling of “hold” first found on the (in)famous BitcoinTalk forum, has become a battle cry for diehard BTC investors, who believe it is irrational to sell the asset.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Volume Profile Suggests Rally to Bring Price Past $20,000 is Near

While many take “HODL” and its derivatives as pure jokes, a commentator has suggested that the persistence of Bitcoin-related memes like “HODL” and “number go up” is a sign of remaining market euphoria from 2017’s bubble, and may thus imply that a further flush in the cryptocurrency markets is well on its way.

Bitcoin Still Has Room to Fall… Apparently

Emotions are fickle things, especially in financial markets. Over the course of the past year, the cryptocurrency market has been through a lot, and so have its investors. Though there are some analysts calling for short-term losses, the sentiment in the Bitcoin market is still widely medium to long-term positive, with calls for investors to “stack sats” and “buy every dip” becoming popular trends on industry social media platforms.

While these expectations that Bitcoin will eventually “moon” aren’t bearish in and of themselves per se—they show that there is continual demand for BTC—a commentator going by “kerneltrader” has noted that it may be a sign that cryptocurrencies remain at too high valuations.

They suggested that this is the only bull market in Bitcoin’s history where parabolic gains have been overtly expected, not wished for or joked about. Kernel claimed that this permabull mindset that many in the industry have adopted is a sign of complacency, is a sign that “a bigger flush is needed” to wipe out all the bulls of yesteryear.

As an opinionated aside: November and December of 2018 was, in this writer’s opinion, decisively a capitulation moment for the market. Then, you had prominent cryptocurrency firms dumping their staff as capital runways became short; analysts were calling for sub-$2,000 Bitcoin prices, and mainstream media were claiming that the blockchain gravy train had crashed entirely. If that isn’t a capitulation, I don’t know what is.

Related Reading: Canadian Bank Changes Bitcoin Tune, May Launch Cryptocurrency Exchange

But Isn’t a Rally Inbound?

Sure, sentiment analysis may suggest that Bitcoin has yet to complete a brutal capitulation phase, but aren’t the technicals showing that a bull run in the cryptocurrency market is on the horizon, if not already here? Yup, yes they are.

As reported by NewsBTC previously, Bitcoin’s record volume seen in June of this year and the subsequent consolidation phase are indicative of an impending rally.

Digital asset manager Charles Edwards proposed that in previous bull markets, fresh all-time highs in volumes were always followed by consolidation and “huge rallies,” with the growth in volume leading to long-term exponential bull markets that brought Bitcoin to orders of magnitudes higher than it was before the surge.

Also,  popular cryptocurrency trader FilbFilb has noted that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Fixes This: Top Bank Chief Says Monetary Policy is Failing
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Nick Chong , 2019-11-13 12:00:18

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.

While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

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Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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