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Ethereum (ETH) has been incurring significant selling pressure over the past couple of weeks, mirroring the bearish price action that Bitcoin has been facing in the time since it plummeted from its recent highs of $10,600.

Analysts are now noting that Ethereum may be positioned for significantly further losses in the near-term, with one analyst setting a target in the upper-$120 region – which may be supported by the fact that the fourth quarter of the year is historically when ETH sees its largest losses.

Ethereum Plummets 8% as Bitcoin Breaks Below $7,000

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading down over 7% at its current price of $148.70, which marks a major retrace from its daily highs of over $160.

Ethereum has been caught within a firm downtrend ever since it failed to break above $190 earlier this month, and it is important to note that it has been unable to garner any significant upwards momentum in the time since it was rejected at $190, which has been largely due to its close correlation with Bitcoin.

Earlier today, the cryptocurrency did fall as low as $140 before it found some buying pressure, which may mean that this is a near-term support level that provides some much-needed relief to ETH’s price action.

In spite of this, The Cryptomist, a popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, explained in a recent tweet that ETH recently broke below the lower boundary of a descending triangle, which means it could move as low as $126 in the near-term.

“$ETH: Descending triangle is completed! This pennant typically breaks down as displayed. I think we could see $126-$130 region,” she noted while referencing the chart seen below.

History May Spell Trouble for ETH 

Although a drop to The Cryptomist’s targets may seem unrealistic, it is imperative to keep in mind that ETH is still trading up from lows of $83 that were set in early-December of 2018.

Additionally, history may support the notion that Ethereum will soon see further downside, as it has historically seen 40% price declines during negative quarters, which would mean that it may drop to $108 in the coming couple of months.

Josh Olszewicz, another popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, spoke about this possibility in a recent tweet, pointing to a spreadsheet that shows ETH’s historical returns on a quarterly basis.

“Historically – Q4 has been $ETH’s worst quarter – $ETH negative quarters have averaged -40% (= $108 for current quarter),” he explained.

The coming few hours and days will likely further elucidate where ETH will trend as 2019 comes to a close, as any further near-term downside could spark a bout of capitulation.

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Cole Petersen , 2019-11-22 23:00:34

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.


While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

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Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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