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As bitcoin prices slide even further this week analysts have been looking at the bigger picture which is growing increasingly bearish. Previous approaches to BTC halving have been bullish but the opposite appears to be developing this time around, at least according to one analyst.

BTC Slides Further

Bitcoin is in danger of falling back below $8,000 again as it takes another beating by the bears. A few hours ago prices broke down again in a plunge from $8,450 to wick down to $8,000 before the slight recovery.

bitcoin

BTC price 1 hour chart – tradingview.com

The price bounced back a little to settle just below $8,200 but it marks a loss of over 4% since the weekend. The down trend is clearly intensifying as Chinese FOMO fades out. Analysts are largely bearish as most are eyeing further losses in another fall to support around $8k.

A Bearish Bitcoin Halving?

There are still six months to go before the Bitcoin halving but this could be the first one that has a bearish run up. Industry analyst Willy Woo has looked at the longer time frame charts and noticed that historical halvings have always been bullish leading up to the event.

“NEVER gone into a halvening in BEARISH price action, miners already capitulating adding sell volume. Historically we front run with a BULLISH setup, miner capitulating only after halvening when revenues are slashed. This is a unique setup. Quite bearish leading up to the event.”

He added that as price drops the weaker miners will close down their rigs as was the case during the 2018 capitulation down to $3k. This year prices have dumped from just below $14k down to $7.5k which is having the same effect on the miners.

Woo added that this adds to the already bearish sentiment and doesn’t expect a huge pump before the halving in May next year.

“I expect way more volatility. Short term bearish is all I’m saying. And don’t expect price will repeat past halvenings.”

Someone else rightly noted that there has only been two other Bitcoin halvings so there isn’t a great deal of data to go on. Another point was made that this halving will be the first when BTC futures contracts are added to the mix which could intensify the bearish sentiment.

Thirdly a massive global recession appears to be looming for 2020 which would also put pressure on the likelihood of a massive bull run. There may be no major bull run for a couple of years.

Others, such as the ‘Crypto Dog’ were bullish noting that there is also a lot of competition between miners;

“$BTC miners are incentivized to keep price low to squeeze out smaller operations. The halving will catalyze a massive run, but who will be left standing when it finally comes?”

The next few months could see a lot of chop for Bitcoin and those expecting a huge pre-halving pump may be disappointed if the above turns out to be accurate.

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Martin Young , 2019-11-19 04:00:06

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.


While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

Featured Image from Shutterstock


Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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