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Like equities and other investments, the performance of cryptocurrencies also changes from quarter to quarter, influenced by different events that take place in the quarter. An analysis by Skew Markets has revealed the top performing and the worst performing quarters in the last 6 years.

A Look Bitcoin’s Quarterly Years Over the Last 6 Years

As per Skew Markets’ analysis, Q2 has seen the positive Bitcoin quarterly returns from 2014 to 2019, except for 2018. The worst performing quarter has been Q1 in these years, except for 2017, and 2019, when Bitcoin price showed growth of 11.21% and 10.34% respectively.

Q2, on the other hand, has shown marked growth in Bitcoin price, except for in 2018, when the majority of the year was characterised by bearishness after the crypto boom of 2017 as the market tumbled from its all-time high. In 2017, the year of Ethereum-based ICOs, Bitcoin price grew from $1,000 to nearly $3,000, recording a whopping 131.47% gain in Q2. The success of the quarter repeated itself in 2019, when Bitcoin price, from $4,000 level at the beginning of quarter, peaked to nearly $14,000 at the end of the quarter.

Q4 has also shown good performance. In 2015, 2016 and 2017, Bitcoin’s quarterly gains were 82.40%, 58.06%, and 226.28% respectively.

Earlier in October, crypto economist and partner and Adaptive Fund, Willy Woo, had also commented on Bitcoin price’s seasonality.

Skew Market’s findings are in sync with Willy Woo’s comment on Bitcoin’s seasonality where he points out that May is the strongest month for Bitcoin price and March is the weakest.

Why is Q2 High?

The best way to explain why Q2 is the most profitable would be the Reverse “Sell in May and Go Away” trend. A blog by delta exchange explains that the value of US equities usually declines at this time as US investors and traders close their positions before the beginning of the summer holidays. The trend works in reverse when we talk about Bitcoin.

sell in may go away
Source: Delta Exchange Blog  

From the chart, it is evident that the reverse “Sell in May, Goa away” trend has worked for Bitcoin during most of the years, except for 2015 and 2018 when Bitcoin price fell. 2017 and 2019 saw record gains as Bitcoin price increased by 60.83% and 58.71% respectively. It is likely that investors, at this time, flock to Bitcoin because of the suppressed prices of equities due to the selling.

Why is Q1 Depressed?

On the other hand, Q1 is likely to have seen mostly negative Bitcoin returns because of two main factors – the reverse January effect and the tax effect.

In January, US equity stock markets are abnormally high due to the New Year and Holiday effect. At this time, Bitcoin has been observed to experience a reverse January effect with suppressed prices. The bearishness of the market may be attributed to the increased attention that the US equity stock markets receive at this time.

reverse january effect
Source: Delta Exchange Blog

From 2014 to 2019, 2014 was the only year when Bitcoin had a positive price movement in January. During the remaining years, Bitcoin price plunged between 3% to 30%.

Then in March comes the tax effect. In March, many investors liquidate their Bitcoin holdings to pay taxes.

tax effect
Source: Delta Exchange Blog

As a result of the tax effect, only 2019 saw positive Bitcoin price movement. From 2014 to 2018, Bitcoin price has been in the red in the month of March.

The holiday season is almost here and now it is time for the Santa Claus rally. Bitcoin price rose consecutively for 3 consecutive years from 2015 to 2017. Now, it remains to be seen if the Santa Claus rally will take place this year or not.

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Here's the Best Performing Quarter for Bitcoin Price Over the Last 6 Years

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Here’s the Best Performing Quarter for Bitcoin Price Over the Last 6 Years

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Like equities and other investments, the performance of cryptocurrencies also changes from quarter to quarter, influenced by different events that take place in the quarter. An analysis by Skew Markets has revealed the top performing and the worst performing quarters in the last 6 years.

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Vinnie Singh

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CoinGape

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Coingape is committed to following the highest standards of journalism, and therefore, it abides by a strict editorial policy. While CoinGape takes all the measures to ensure that the facts presented in its news articles are accurate.

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The views, opinions, positions or strategies expressed by the authors and those providing comments are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, positions or strategies of CoinGape. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.



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Vinnie Singh , 2019-12-04 14:19:52 ,

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.


While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

Featured Image from Shutterstock


Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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