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Many have asserted that the first time Bitcoin futures were launched, a planned market crash followed. The exchange that launched those futures back in late 2017 is gearing up for more institutional products in two months’ time so what impact will that have this time around?

CME Options Launch In January

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is expanding its institutional Bitcoin product lineup. According to a press release one of the world’s leading derivatives market places announced that, pending regulatory approval, options on its BTC futures contracts will be available for trading starting January 13, 2020 – just two months from today.

CME Group Global Head of Equity Index and Alternative Investment Products, Tim McCourt, stated;

“Since the launch of our Bitcoin futures nearly two years ago, clients have expressed a growing interest in options as another way to hedge and trade in these markets. We have worked closely with clients and the industry to establish a robust and increasingly liquid underlying futures market here at CME Group, and we believe Bitcoin options will now offer our customers greater precision and flexibility to manage their risk.”

The Bitcoin futures market has shown strong growth since it was first introduced two years ago. The average daily volume of 6,500+ contracts in 2019 is equivalent to around 32,500 BTC. According to the release almost half of the trading volume is outside the US.

The primary difference between futures and options is that the contract holder is obligated to sell a futures contract on the expiry date. With options there is no obligation to sell the contract on expiry, giving greater flexibility which of course may impact market prices. Investopedia goes into more detail on the differences.

Impact on Bitcoin Prices

When the CME and CBOE launched Bitcoin futures contracts in December 2017, it was during the market peak. It was widely reported that the US government planned this to enable mass shorting of the asset which would burst the bubble. It was a resounding success, three months later Bitcoin had dumped 60%.

According to former CFTC chairman, Christopher Giancarlo, the Trump administration had this in mind all along;

“One of the untold stories of the past few years is that the CFTC, the Treasury, the SEC and the [National Economic Council] director at the time, Gary Cohn, believed that the launch of bitcoin futures would have the impact of popping the bitcoin bubble. And it worked.”

This time around the scene is very different, there has been no massive crypto hysteria, the crypto scene has matured and retail and institutional investment has steadily grown. Therefore there will be no huge incentive to short Bitcoin because it is not at its peak.

Options are more flexible than futures and, just as Bakkt will eventually do, it will increase liquidity for Bitcoin markets which will be bullish for long term prices.

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Martin Young , 2019-11-13 04:00:02

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.


While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

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Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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