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Over the past day or two, Bitcoin (BTC) has started to settle in a price range, the low-$8,000s. As it stands, the crypto market seems somewhat directionless, stuck between resistances and supports above and below its current price. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin is moving very near to a key historical level — one that may reveal if BTC is in a macro bull or bear trend.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Fixes This: Top Bank Chief Says Monetary Policy is Failing

Lose $7,900, And It’s Over for Bitcoin Bulls

Bitcoin is on the edge of a cliff, according to a key indicator anyway. The indicator in question, the Super Trend, “which can give you precise buy or sell signal in a trending market” by using moving averages and other simple technical indicators.

According to the one-week Bitcoin chart, the Super Trend baseline is currently sitting at $7,900. A weekly close under that level, according to the analyst, means that a bear market will ensue, as it will signal that the long-term bull trend has technically ended.

This isn’t the first time that an analyst has highlighted the importance of the Super Trend baseline. As reported by NewsBTC previously, a trader going by “Dyme” wrote that “Traditionally in a bull market Bitcoin weekly stays above ATR.”

This isn’t the only evidence suggesting that $8,000 will be of utmost importance for Bitcoin to close above in coming trading sessions. Jacob Canfield, a professional Bitcoin trader, recently took to his Youtube channel to explain why this price level does carry so much clout.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3so6BzXsnA

Long story short, according to the VPVR, a volume indicator that tells you price levels that have been historically important, $8,000 is the most-traded volume level of 2019. In fact, Canfield’s chart seemingly suggested that it is one of the most important price levels for Bitcoin of all time. “Price tends to gravitate to volume nodes; they act as support and resistance,” the analyst further explained.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Volume Lowest Since BTC Was at $4,000: Price Breakout Near

Ball in Court of Bears

Unfortunately, it seems as though bears may win in pushing Bitcoin under $7,900. As warned in a NewsBTC post published just the other day, miner capitulation was nearing. And now, as noted by individuals on Twitter, it has arrived.

For those who need some more information, miner capitulation is when miners sell the BTC they earned via mining, often all at once, to keep the lights on, cash out, or to upgrade their systems for the future. This may sound relatively innocuous — of course, miners need to sell Bitcoin to fund their operational expenses — though Garner noted that it becomes a vicious cycle:

“Undercapitalized miners panic sell, price dumps, longs get squeezed, stop losses cascade — then more miners lose their lunch.”

The last time this took place was in November 2018, just days before the start of the now-infamous crash from $6,000 to $3,000.

Related Reading: $150,000 to $300,000: What Big Firms are Targeting For Long Term Bitcoin Predictions
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Nick Chong , 2019-11-20 09:22:06

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.


While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

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Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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