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The majority of the Ripple (XRP) holders were waiting for the yearly Swell conference to bring some excitement to XRP price. However, the price didn’t move at all and Ripple is searching for annual lows on its USD pair. 

Crypto market daily performance

Crypto market daily performance. Source: Coin360

The question is, was it reasonable for investors to expect a vast rally before the Swell conference or should they have not expected any upward movement at all? Let’s look at the charts to see what XRP price might do in the future. 

Ripple remains in a year-long downtrend

There are some exciting things to be seen from the USD chart. The trend is quite clear and readers will notice that XRP price has continued to fall since the peak in January 2018. 

XRP USD 2-day chart

XRP USD 2-day chart. Source: TradingView

A downtrend is marked by lower highs and lower lows. Quite importantly, the price didn’t make any higher high since the peak in January 2018 and is still stuck in its downtrend. 

A positive is that  there is a remarkably healthy support level of around $0.30. It took nearly a year until the floor broke downwards and this breakdown occurred in August 2019. 

Since then, the XRP did make a few retests of this level and confirmed this level as resistance, which marked the continuation of the downward movements towards the next support area around $0.19 to $0.20.

Swell didn’t go so well

Another interesting phenomenon is the excitement of XRP investors around the time that the Swell Conference is meant to begin.

XRP USD 2-day chart

XRP USD 2-day chart. Source: TradingView

Quite remarkably, the 2-day chart provides clear data regarding the impact of the past three Swell conferences on XRP price. Each time there is a surge before the actual event occurs and the price drops the moment the event starts or finishes. Is this due to unsatisfied investors selling their tokens or are they simply playing the surge provided by the event?

What can be concluded from this chart is that it’s a classic example of the buy the rumor, sell the news concept. In this concept, there’s a surge before actual events (buy the rumor), caused by hype. However, when the actual event occurs, the price drops as the hype is going away (sell the news).

This phenomenon is seen on many levels and can also be found on the last Bitcoin (BTC) halving or the previous Litecoin (LTC) halvings. 

LTC USD 2-day chart

LTC USD 2-day chart. Source: TradingView

As shown by the LTC 2-day chart, and also with the halving in 2015, we can see a price run-up before the actual halving took place. This is simply another example of the ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ concept, one of the unique phenomena which occurs in trading and investing. 

Ripple has nearly bottomed on the BTC pair

XRP BTC 2-day chart

XRP BTC 2-day chart. Source: TradingView

The XRP/BTC 2-day chart shows XRP price hovering on a vital support area (the green box). This area provided support and resistance levels for more than four years and is a level to watch closely.

Furthermore, the price broke out of a massive falling wedge construction and marked bullish divergences alongside it, which is often seen as a sign of a trend reversal. 

XRP BTC daily chart

XRP BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, the daily chart is providing data that XRP price is in a crucial support area. This area is a previous order block and horizontal support zone that should be kept as support if the XRP wants to maintain bullish perspectives.

Alongside that, a potential falling wedge construction is found which is similar to the one seen on the left side of the chart. If the price can maintain this support and break to the upside, then a breakout towards 3700-3750 satoshis and possibly 4800-5000 satoshis is likely. 

The case of XRP price seeing a continuation to the upside is growing more likely according to the higher timeframes. 

XRP USD 4-day chart

XRP USD 4-day chart. Source: TradingView

The higher time frame charts (4-day in this example) are showing similar signals to prior bottom formations. The last time a bullish divergence occurred on the 4-day chart, the price surged 5,500% and 180%. 

A bullish divergence is not a guarantee of any price movements, but they are seen as one of the significant indicators for a potential trend reversal.

Ripple needs to break $0.30 to flip bullish

XRP USD daily chart

XRP USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The crucial factor for Ripple is the need to break out of the falling wedge construction. Any bullish reversal will hinge on this happening. Furthermore, if the breakout occurs, XRP price needs to push above $0.30. 

The reasoning behind that is quite simple; the $.30 level used to be a support for a year. Through breaking that level, a potential higher high can be defined, and a new upwards trend can start. 

At the time of publishing, XRP price is still making lower highs and lower lows, so an upwards breakout is needed to speak of bullishness.

Looking forward

Holding XRP through the past two years didn’t bring a high return on investment as the price is down 93.45% since its all-time high. Does this mean that buying XRP would be a bad investment at this point? 

Not necessarily and many investors will remember a quote made famous by an 18th British nobleman named Baron Rothschild. Rothschild said, “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”

In that regard, if the price starts to make an uptrend, a crucial factor is a breakout of $0.30 to start an uptrend and to provide a better investment opportunity. If $0.20 to 0.21 can’t provide support, the next support level is at $0.15. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Cointelegraph By Michaël van de Poppe , 2019-12-03 22:35:00 ,

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.

While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

Featured Image from Shutterstock

Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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