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  • Non-commercial interest in CME cash-settled futures drops, CFTC report.
  • CME futures currently at a net short position, at 856 short open contracts.
  • Bitcoin bears set to push the price below $8,500 USD.

The overall Bitcoin futures market is on a slippery slope as interest in both institutional and retail investment drops to levels below the July spike that pushed BTC’s price above $13,000 USD. According to a report released by the U.S Commodities Futures Trading Commission this Tuesday on futures trading in the US trading market, CME cash-settled futures have dropped to 865 net short contracts signaling worrying signs for BTC price in the coming weeks.

Non-commercial interest in BTC futures plummets

Non-commercial investors, commonly treated as market speculators, held a total net short position of 865 BTC contracts as of the week ending Nov. 12. The drop in interest of speculative buyers signals a possible drop in price as the bears take over the BTC market. As of the end of Nov.12, the total number of long contracts stood at 1,679 BTC and open short positions at 2,544 BTC.

The number of open contracts in non-commercial CME BTC futures is currently at 3,091 BTC, representing a 12% drop in the number from the previous week. The depressive state of BTC at the moment, trading below $8700, is further amplified by the spike of open interest in short trades by 83% during the week.

Institutional interest in BTC in a slip

The institutional interest in CME BTC futures is similarly following the path of retail traders as open interest plummeted in bears favor in the past week too. Starting off November at a three month high of 870 open long BTC contracts, the interest slipped by over 300% in a week to 190 contracts.

Since BTC’s spike following the Xi blockchain speech to over $10K, the fall in price to current levels below $8,500 saw institutional investment drop to a net short position of 220 open contracts.

Summary

CFTC Report: Non-commercial Interest in CME Bitcoin Futures in Net Short Position

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CFTC Report: Non-commercial Interest in CME Bitcoin Futures in Net Short Position

Description

Non-commercial interest in CME cash settled futures drops, CFTC report.
CME futures currently at a net short position, at 856 short open contracts.
Bitcoin bears set to push price below $8,500 USD.

Author

Lujan Odera

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Coingape

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Coingape is committed to following the highest standards of journalism, and therefore, it abides by a strict editorial policy. While CoinGape takes all the measures to ensure that the facts presented in its news articles are accurate.

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The views, opinions, positions or strategies expressed by the authors and those providing comments are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, positions or strategies of CoinGape. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.



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Lujan Odera , 2019-11-16 13:53:22 ,

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.


While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

Featured Image from Shutterstock


Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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