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It’s been an interesting and confusing year for Bitcoin price, with the crypto asset bottoming out in $3,100 at levels of extreme fear and panic, then in just a few months growing 350% and once again causing talk of moonshots and Lambos across the market.

In fact, during the most recent “echo bubble” as it’s being called, the perceived value of Bitcoin exceeded that of the peak 2017 crypto bubble mania. However, price fell short of setting new high alongside the lofty price perception, and one analyst says that data point looks “bad” for Bitcoin, and says that prices of $2020 in the year 2020 aren’t that “crazy.”

Bitcoin Perceived Price Value Reaches Crypto Bubble Levels

After a stellar year for Bitcoin, bringing investors who bought the bottom over 350% in gains from trough to peak, the crypto market has once again turned bearish. Following the top of the 2019 parabolic rally back in June, the market has slowly returned to a state of fear, panic, and despair.

Related Reading | Give Thanks For These Crypto and Bitcoin Black Friday Deals 

But it was only a short time ago, that Bitcoin was trading above $10,000 and talk of riches and $1 million dollar BTC became commonplace once again. It was as if crypto investors suddenly forgot about a full year of bear market, and all of the pain it caused.

The irrational exuberance can be seen via the sentix Strategic Bias index, which assigns a score measuring the perceived price value of Bitcoin. The metric outpaces the hype and bias surrounding the peak of the 2017 crypto bubble, however, price failed to set a new high as well.

The analyst who first called attention to this “bad” looking metric says that for “perception of value to exceed the previous levels and price fall short” it says “that selling pressure was so high,” and claims that that “hopium addict” crypto investors “provided liquidity” for boomers to unload their bags at a lot higher prices.

Because price perception so greatly outpaced the actual price in 2019, the analyst says that seeing prices of $2020 per BTC in the new year wouldn’t be “crazy.”

Calls For New Lows At Recent Top Would Be Called “Crazy,” Not So “Crazy” Anymore

Given how exuberant crypto investors were at Bitcoin’s recent peak, any talk of prices of $2,000 Bitcoin would have been met with much confrontation, calling such claims “crazy,” especially considering how quickly the first-ever crypto-asset ran up from the then bottom at $3,100.

Related Reading | Should Bitcoin Investors Be Thankful It’s Thanksgiving? 

Now, that fear has returned to the market, and Bitcoin is trading at prices back around the $6,000 range it has already once broken down from, thinking that the bottom isn’t in and Bitcoin could reach prices around $2020 in 2020, doesn’t sound so crazy anymore.

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Tony Spilotro , 2019-11-29 21:00:10

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.

While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

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Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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