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Andreas Antonopoulos doesn’t foresee any change in the positions of the top two digital currencies by market capitalisation any time soon. The author, computer scientist, and long-time cryptocurrency advocate believes the first mover advantages of Bitcoin and Ethereum will be impossible to overcome.

Bitcoin currently enjoys a comfortable market capitalisation lead over its nearest rival, Ethereum. Ethereum too has a large advantage over the next largest smart contract platform, EOS.

There Will be No Flippening, Says Antonopoulos

Bitcoin and Ethereum have reigned supreme in their respected niches for long enough that displacing either is all but impossible, according to respected cryptocurrency proponent Andreas Antonopoulos. The industry expert gave opinions on the matter during a recent video interview broadcast on the Ivan on Tech YouTube channel. In response to a question about the likelihood of a rival smart contract platform overtaking Ethereum, he argued that first mover advantages were incredibly difficult to overcome:

“I think it’s very, very difficult to disrupt the network effect of an early starter.”

Antonopoulos went on to argue that, thanks to the sheer weight of activity surrounding the respective networks, it would be almost impossible for a rival digital gold-like asset or smart contract platform to surpass either cryptocurrency. Not only is development activity important but market activity (volume and liquidity) and even social activity. The cryptocurrency author mentioned seemingly more trivial things like t-shirts, books, and conferences as also contributing to the overall power of  the network effect enjoyed by first movers.

For Antonopoulos, Bitcoin is already the de facto digital currency representing the hardest monetary policy ever and Ethereum has secured itself sufficient network effect to see it remain ahead of the other smart contract platforms out there:

“Ethereum can’t displace Bitcoin because they’re fundamentally different and Bitcoin has the early advantage network effect in a particular niche of super sound, super uncensorable money.”

He went on to state that even if a rival has better technology than Ethereum, the smart contract “niche is fully occupied”. The power of being an early mover means that the network has been able to grow much larger than its competition. This size makes developing on Ethereum more attractive too. Antonopoulos described a wider existing knowledge pool for developers to learn from, more software examples available, and better developer tools already out there as being a powerful lure to those wanting to build on blockchain systems.

After admitting he might be wrong, saying that there could indeed be some massive system-killing failure in either Bitcoin or Ethereum that could shake up the current market capitalisation distribution, Antonopoulos said:

“Just as Ethereum is not going to achieve a flippening over Bitcoin, just like all of Bitcoin’s competitors are not going to achieve a flippening over Bitcoin, I don’t see any other smart contract platform achieving a flippening over Ethereum.”

 

Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Case Builds as Price Holds $7,500 Range; What’s Next?

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Rick D. , 2019-11-29 00:00:19

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NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020 All rights reserved.

NewsBlock © 2019 - 2020. All rights reserved.


While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.

Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall to Low-$8,000s as Chart Remains Weak

A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.

One recent fractal popularized by a well-known cryptocurrency trader is implying that BTC is going to return to the low-$7,000s in the coming days.

Bitcoin Fractal Implies Retracement to Low-$7,000s

A well-known crypto trader going by “Tyler Durden” on Twitter recently posted the chart below, which shows that a Bitcoin price fractal may be playing out. The fractal has four phases: horizontal consolidation marked by one fakeout, a surge above the consolidation phase, a distribution, then a strong drop to fresh lows.

If the fractal plays out in full, BTC could reach the low-$7,000s again, potentially as low as $7,100. This would represent a 20-odd percent collapse from the current price point of $8,800.

It isn’t only a fractal that is hinting Bitcoin has the potential to visit its lows. As we reported on Saturday, Bloomberg believes that if the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator flips red, a downtrend could push the cryptocurrency back to $7,300.

Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?

Can Bulls Step In?

But again, many believe it is irrational to have such bearish interpretations of the cryptocurrency’s chart at the moment. As reported by NewsBTC earlier, Popular crypto trader Mayne recently noted that the “people waiting for $6,000” are irrational. He quipped that Bitcoin retracing and consolidating after its fourth-biggest bull move in history ($7,300 to $10,500, a 42% gain) is perfectly par for the course, but noted that it’s totally possible we can go lower from $8,800.

The medium-term technicals support this.

Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.

Also, a Bitcoin price model created using Facebook Prophet machine learning found that the leading cryptocurrency is likely to end the year at just over $12,000. What’s notable about this model is that it called the price drop to $8,000 months in advance, and forecasted a ~$7,500 price bottom for BTC.

To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.

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Nick Chong , 2019-11-10 12:00:38

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